A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
